IS MUDAVADI THE BIGGEST PICTURE?

Speculations as to whether Uhuru will indeed run for presidency have been doing rounds for a while now. Uhuru himself has done nothing to quell the speculations, a good political tactic, keep your enemies
guessing. 

His ally William Ruto on the other hand has been more forthcoming, declaring that he indeed will run for presidency. He cemented this by unveiling the party he intends to use as a vehicle to get him to state house. 

But the ICC cases they are facing have thrown a spanner in the works. The ambitions of the duo, implicit or explicit have been blighted by the ICC cases. This is casting a long dark shadow over their future in Kenyan politics.

It is a mixed bag of fortunes for Uhuru and Ruto as far as the ICC process goes and of particular significance was the government’s ill fated attempt of shuttle diplomacy to have the ICC hand back the cases
for local trial even without structures in place to try the suspects. 

The infamous round the world tour by the VP Mr Kalonzo Musyoka  resulted in an endorsement by AU to have the cases tried in Kenya but this had no material significance, none whatsoever on the ICC process. 

You’d think the government learnt a lesson or two from this but that isn’t the case. 

Now there is the belated last ditch attempt again by the government to have the cases tried by an expanded East African Court. 

This amidst preparation by the Ocampo four to head to the Hague on June 12 for the preparatory conference where the rules of engagement will be laid down.

I sense desperation and frustration by the government and the Uhuru-Ruto camps who are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the ICC and why wouldn’t they? 

The ICC is beginning to look like a moving target for them and they just can’t pin it down. A series of rulings by the court have rebutted any efforts to have the cases pulled out of its jurisdiction. The cases the court ruled must now proceed to full trial.

Why is all this relevant you might ask? For me, the ICC intrigues and now the decision by Sabatia MP and DPM Musalia Mudavadi to run for presidency completes the jig saw; we can now see the big picture. 

Surely, one would like to imagine that Ruto and Uhuru must have received counsel that there is a chance that they might walk free hence all the effort they have put into the case. So far, in its 10 year existence the court has only managed one conviction. 

On the 14th of March this year, the court found a Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga guilty of war crimes, recruiting  children into his movement. 

This record is good news for the OCampo four. But if their counsel is fair, they will also inform the OCampo four that there is also a chance that they will be found guilty on some if not all the allegations leveled against them. 

For Ruto and Uhuru, this outcome will effectively end any dream of ascending to the highest office in the country, the presidency. But that is not the worst part of the story, what about their economic interests? The ICC is clear on this; they will forfeit all they own as reparations for the victims. 

Clearly in the event of a guilty verdict, they stand to lose more than just their freedom. Add to that Raila’s presidency and it becomes an even bigger nightmare and a double whammy for them and that’s why Uhuru and Ruto will do anything and everything to stop Raila’s ascendancy to the high office. This they have made it clear they will

It is this scenario that led me to conclude that Mudavadi’s entrance into the presidential race is clearly a backup plan for the Uhuru-Ruto alliance in the event that the worst case scenario, a conviction by the ICC was to eventuate. They want someone who they can trust, manipulate, someone who can protect their own interests and someone who shares a history with them. Who better than the Sabatia MP Musalia Mudavadi? 

As it stands now, Uhuru and Ruto know as much as Mudavadi does that on his own, he stands no chance of beating Raila. But throw in full support from Rift Valley and Central, split the Western and Coast vote and you begin to see how potentially Mudavadi can end Raila’s long held ambition of becoming Kenya’s president. 

By supporting Mudavadi’s presidential bid, and this I suspect is the eventual game plan, Uhuru and Ruto have in him a close friend who will protect their own interests and who could potentially if he becomes president refuse to cooperate with the ICC. 

I see Mudavadi’s entrance into the presidential race foray as the first chapter of grand scale political machinations by Uhuru and Ruto.